State Coal Industry (600188) Annual Report Comments: Progressive normal incremental production can be expected
Event: On March 30, the company released its 2018 annual report, reporting that the two companies achieved operating income of 1630.
08 million yuan, an increase of 7 in ten years.
79%; of which, the main coal business income was 624.
28 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.
79%.
Total profit 150.
4.3 billion, an increase of 45 previously.
76%; net profit attributable to mother 79.
09 million yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.
81%; net profit after deduction is 84.
91 trillion, an increase of 47 in ten years.
36%; net cash flow from operating activities was 224.
32 ppm, an increase of 39 in ten years.
65%; basic return 1.
61 yuan, an increase of 0 a year.
23 yuan.
Cash deposit of RMB 5 for every 10 shares.
4 yuan (including tax), corresponding to a closing price of 5 on March 29th.
09%, H-share dividend yield of 8.
16%.
The company achieved operating income of 438 in the fourth quarter.
1.8 billion, an increase of 37 in ten years.
85%, an increase of 2 from the previous month.
18%; profit totals 40.
17 trillion, an increase of 21 a year.
69%, an increase of 35.
85%; net profit attributable to mother 24.
50,000 yuan, an increase of 25 in ten years.
55%, an increase of 106.
79%; net profit after deduction is 26.
0.6 billion, an increase of 91 previously.
50%, an increase of 124.
08%; net cash flow from operating activities was 97.
79 trillion, an increase of 24 in ten years.
27%, an increase of 188.
47%; basic return is 0.
49 yuan.
Opinion: The company’s coal output has increased, and the capacity release of the Shaanxi and Mongolian bases has initially recovered.The company’s equity coal output in 2018 was 9510.
1 Initially, the annual increase is 1517.
5 nominal (18.
99%).
The increase in production mainly comes from Yancoal Australia. Due to the increase in consolidation time after the acquisition of United Coal and the commencement of the second phase of Moraben, Yancoal Australia contributed 3359 coal production to the company in 2018.
9 for the first time, an increase of 1433 a year.
3 for the first time (74.
40%); Shanxi Nenghua and Heze Nenghua increased their output due to the improvement of mining conditions, and the total output of equity coal increased by 127.
4 announcement; Shandong headquarters produces 3247 coal.
4 baseline, increase by at least 26 constants (0.
81%), Shaanxi-Mongolia base (Ordos Energy, Yulin Energy) coal production 1813
7 initially, once downgraded to 7.
7 official (-0.
42%).
The company’s coal output in the fourth quarter was 2,564.
3 Initially, at least 152 cases were reduced (-5.
93%), an increase of 164.
7 nominal (7.
33%).
The decline in the company’s coal output in the fourth quarter was mainly due to the safety of the Shilawusu coal mine under Haosheng Coal Industry since the second quarter of 2018, and the release of the impact of environmental protection policies led to a decline in output in the fourth quarter172.
3 for the first time (69.
59%), an increase of 9 from the previous quarter.
3 for the first time (14.
07%).
It is expected that the capacity utilization of Shilawusu coal mine will be restored in 2019.
Also affected by safety and environmental protection policies, the production of Ordos Nenghua’s coal mines in the fourth quarter basically returned to normal, with a single quarter of coal production totaling 450.
9 Initially, the year was flat, an increase of 204 from the previous month.
6 growth rate (83.
(07%). On January 2, 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission approved the transfer of the production capacity of Longwan Coal Mine from 500 tons / year to 1,000 tons / year.
Domestic coking coal prices and international coal prices rose strongly, and the company’s coal prices continued to rise.
In 2018, the company’s comprehensive coal carbonization was 547.
9 yuan / ton, an increase of 47 previously.
17 yuan / ton (9.
42%).
Among them, Shandong headquarters has a purity of 599 tons of coal.
36 yuan / ton, an increase of 14 in ten years.
54 yuan / ton (2.
49%); Yancoal Australia 623 tons of coal cement.
21 yuan / ton, an increase of 82 previously.
83 yuan / ton (15.33%); Shaanxi-Mongolia base crushed 267 tons of coal.
89 yuan / ton, an increase of 1 in ten years.
95 yuan / ton (0.
73%).
The company’s comprehensive ton coal thickness in the fourth quarter was 531.
31 yuan / ton, with a value increase of 29 before.
66 yuan / ton (5.
91%), down 53.
27 yuan / ton (-9.
11%).
Among them, Shandong headquarters has a purity of 633 tons of coal.
69 yuan / ton, an increase of 58 in ten years.
59 yuan / ton (10.
19%), an increase of 48 from the previous month.
03 yuan / ton (8.
20%); Yancoal Australia crushed 621 tons of coal.
06 yuan / ton, an increase of 26 in ten years.
1 yuan / ton (4.
39%), down 23 from the previous month.
29 yuan / ton (-3.
61%); Shaanxi-Mongolia base crushed 270 tons of coal.
46 yuan / ton, previously downgraded by 12.
48 yuan / ton (-4.
41%), an increase of 11.
54 yuan / ton (4.
46%).
The strong growth of domestic coking coal prices and international coal prices in 2018 has driven the company’s comprehensive coal doping up.
The increase in production at the Shaanxi-Mongolia base and the increase in safety and environmental protection expenditures significantly increased the cost of coal per ton, which dragged down the company’s profit in the coal sector in 2018 and improved significantly in the fourth quarter.
The company’s gross profit per ton of coal in 2018 was 241.
18 yuan / ton, an increase of 16 in ten years.
65 yuan / ton (7.
42%), gross profit margin per ton of coal 44.
02%, 0 in ten years.
82.
Among them, the gross profit per ton of coal in Shandong headquarters was 346.
31 yuan / ton, temporarily downgraded to 9.
29 yuan / ton (-2.
61%), with a gross profit margin of 57.
78%, 10 years downgrade 3.
03 pct; Yancoal Australia gross profit per ton of coal 353.12 yuan / ton, an increase of 50 in ten years.
19 yuan / ton (16.
57%), with a gross profit margin of 56.
66%, an increase of 0 a year.
60 pct; gross profit per ton of coal at Shaanxi and Mongolia base 69.
62 yuan / ton, previously downgraded 58.
66 yuan / ton (-45.
73%), gross margin 25.
99% downgraded by 22 per year.
25.
The gross profit margin per ton of coal in the fourth quarter was 42.
79%, more than ten years.
05 pct, which is 2 higher than the previous month.
10 pct; gross margin per ton of coal in Shandong headquarters, Yancoal Australia and Shaanxi and Mongolia bases are 57.
33%, 60.
45%, 23.
34%, down 6 each year.
50 pct, up 0.
80 pct, down 24.
17 pct, each rose by 0 from the previous month.
60 pct, up 3.
84 pcts, up 43.
52.
The gross profit margin of the Shaanxi and Mongolian bases has dropped significantly this year because the cost per ton of coal caused by the reduction of production and the increase in safety and environmental protection expenditures caused by strong safety and environmental protection regulators has increased significantly.
27 yuan / ton, an increase of 60 in ten years.
61 yuan / ton (44.
03%), dragging down the company’s coal sector profit, the cost per ton of coal in the fourth quarter was 207.
33 yuan / ton, down 103 from the previous month.
84 yuan / ton (-33.
37%), marked improvement in the fourth quarter.
The volume of methanol business rose steadily, and the performance of the chemical sector was impressive.
In 2018, the company’s methanol output increased further2.
60% (4.
2 preliminary) to 165.
In June, sales increased by 2 per year.
11% (3.
4 samples) to 164.
5 nominal.
Comprehensive methanol formaldehyde 2124 in 2018.
55 yuan / ton, an increase of 10 in ten years.09% (194.
75 yuan / ton)杭州桑拿洗浴会所, the unit production cost is 1370.
45 yuan / ton, flat for one year, gross profit of 754 methanol units for ten years.
11 yuan / ton, a big increase of 34 in ten years.
9% (195.
08 yuan / ton).
The steady increase in the volume of methanol has brought about the initial realization of the methanol business.
95 trillion, an increase of 12 in ten years.
41% (3.
8.6 billion); realized gross profit12.
41 trillion, an increase of 37 in ten years.
74% (3.
40 ppm); gross margin 35.
49%, an increase of 6 a year.
53 pct, profitability improved significantly.
On March 19, 2019, several Japanese ministries and commissions jointly issued the “Guiding Opinions on the Promotion and Application of Methanol Cars in Certain Areas”, encouraging the rapid development of methanol cars in regions with better resource 杭州夜网论坛 endowments such as Shaanxi and Shanxi.The two methanol second-phase projects with a total capacity of 160 budgets / year are expected to be put into operation in the first half of 2019. Under the scale effect of policy catalysis and capacity expansion, the company’s profitability of the coal chemical sector has gradually increased.
The company’s revenue quality has continued to improve, and its long-term performance has been eroded by non-recurring expansions, but its normal operating profitability is strong.
The company’s 2018 revenue was 1630.
08 million yuan, an increase of 7 in ten years.
79% (117.
8 billion), coal business income 624.
28 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.
79% (139.
5.6 billion).
Percentage of total revenue was 38.
30%, an increase of 6 per year.
25 pct, low-profit trading business income continued to narrow, and the quality of revenue improved.
The company’s fourth-quarter operating income was 438.
1.8 billion, an increase of 118 a year.
09 billion yuan (36.
89%), an increase of 9 from the previous month.
3.6 billion (2.
18%), while coal business income was 166.
0.6 billion, with a previous appreciation of 2.
900 million (1.
78%), an increase of 7 from the previous quarter.
1.3 billion (4.
49%).
The company’s three fees totaled 153 in 2018.
1.8 billion, an increase of 34 in ten years.1.5 billion (28.
69%).
Period expense rate 9.
40%, an increase of one year.
53.
The increase in the expense ratio during the period was mainly due to the increase in selling expenses and management expenses. The increase in the sales volume of Yancoal Australia’s coal affected the increase in selling expenses18.
7.4 billion US dollars, part of the company’s social insurance merger Jining City, unified management and one-time provision of social insurance premiums led to an increase in management costs10.
1.6 billion.
Three fees totaled 28 in the fourth quarter.
16 ppm, a decrease of 5 ten years ago.
5.7 billion (-16.
51%), a drop of 15 from the previous month.
3.7 billion (-35.
31%), and the expense ratio during the period is 6.
43%, downgraded 4 in ten years.
11 pct, down 3 from the previous month.
72 pct, the decrease in the expense ratio during the fourth quarter was mainly due to the substantial decline in financial expenses.
In 2018, the company achieved net profit of return to mother 79.
09 million yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.
81% (11.
3.8 billion); net profit after deducting non-attribution is 84.
91 trillion, an increase of 47 in ten years.
36% (27.
4 billion); ROE 13.
48%, 0 in ten years.
52.
In the fourth quarter, net profit attributable to mothers was 24.
500,000 yuan, an increase of 4 in ten years.
1.8 billion (21.
03%), an increase of 12.
4.2 billion (106.
83%); net profit after deduction is 26.
0.6 billion, an increase of 12 in ten years.
4.5 billion (91.
50%), an increase of 12 from the previous month.
5.5 billion (92.
91%).
The company’s performance was eroded by three factors. The output of Shaanxi and Mongolian bases fell short of expectations and costs rose. The transfer of the “three supply and one industry” to local management resulted in non-recurring expenditures.
38 billion and some social security are separately managed and accrued by the local government10.
1.6 billion.With the operation returning to normal, the fourth quarter’s single-quarter results highlight the company’s profitability.
The strong cash profit supplemented the downside of capital expenditures to ensure reliable dividends, and the equity incentive plan escorted the company’s stable operation.
The company’s EBITDA profit margin was 14 in 2018.
73%, an increase of 3 a year.
17 pct, net cash flow from long-term operating activities 224.
32 trillion, an increase of 63 a year.
6.9 billion (39.
65%).
The undistributed profit at the end of 2018 was 431.
42 trillion, asset-liability budget 58.
29%, down 2 from the end of 2017.
06 pct, the leverage ratio is moderate, and some of the company’s debts are intended to be repaid through raised funds. The rejection level continues to decrease.
At present, the Shaanxi-Mongolia base and the Australian base have basically completed the construction of coal mines. The company’s capital expenditure plan for 2019 is 90.
240,000 yuan, compared with 108 in 2018.
0.9 million yuan fell significantly.
In 2018, the company’s articles of association will increase the dividend rate from 30% to 35%. Based on the company’s cash flow situation, even the target rate under the basic dividend rate will alternate.
The company announced on February 22, 2019 that the supplementary registration of the stock budget for the equity incentive plan was completed. The implementation of the equity incentive plan further enhanced the reliability of the company’s stable operations.
Earnings forecast and rating: Based on the fact that it will take time for Shilawusu Coal Mine to resume normal production, we have lowered the company’s earnings forecast. It is expected that the diluted EPS in 19, 20 and 21 will be 1.
75 yuan, 1.
85 yuan, 1.
88 yuan.
At the same time, considering the expansion of Zhuanlongwan coal mine’s production capacity, the fulfillment of the integrated incentive effect, and the second phase of the methanol project is about to start production, we maintain the company’s “Buy” rating.
Previous catalytic factors: The central coal price continued to rise, while the factors of normal production at the Shaanxi-Shanshan base eased, Zhuanlongwan coal mine output was released on schedule, and the second-phase methanol project was put into production.
Risk factors: the short-term fluctuation risk of coal prices, the risk of safety in production, and the project under construction is less than expected.