Jin Xinnong (002548): Integrating partners and investment projects to amplify employee motivation
At present, the overall epidemic prevention pressure in the north is intensifying, and the upcoming Spring Festival is a time when enterprises in the south need to focus on prevention and control. The nationwide breeding sow inventory still faces a certain degree of uncertainty.In this context, the company promotes partners to invest in projects and expand employee enthusiasm, which helps the company seize this round of epic pig cycles. Event: Recently, the company issued the “Announcement on Reply to the Inquiry Letter 天津夜网 of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange”, which explained the extension of the independent director’s “On the Company’s Choice to Establish a Holding Subsidiary in Nanchang, Jiangxi”. At the same time, it detailed the specific progress of the company’s business partner project. We believe that the company’s business partner project has a good starting point. If it can proceed smoothly, it will help the company seize this round of epic pig cycles. Vigorously promote partners to invest in projects, grasp asset-light operation. After the pig cycle company launched business partners to invest in projects, it has already established 6 subsidiaries in Jiangxi, Anhui and other places through leased asset-light operation methods, of which 5 are run byWuhan Tianzhong Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd., the company’s 杭州夜生活网 holding subsidiary (the company holds 99 shares.97%) Cooperate with the company’s employees to establish the Sun company. After the establishment of the Sun company, the company will allocate main operating management personnel to be responsible for the daily management and decision-making of the new company. The cooperative employees will actively participate in the daily production and operation of the new company.The company can achieve 7 in the future.150,000 sows in stock.We believe that the company will fully expand the enthusiasm of employees through cooperation and investment. If it can proceed smoothly, it will help the company seize this round of epic pig cycles. Recently, the epidemic situation in the north has risen. After the Spring Festival, the epidemic situation in the south still needs to be controlled and gradually expanded to the continued spread of African swine fever. The overall pressure of epidemic prevention in the north has intensified.Inventory can multiply sows and turn their heads down. At the same time, several other provinces such as Liaoning and Jilin are repeating the same mistakes in Heilongjiang, and the whole winter is the time when the epidemic is the biggest test. For the industry, a new round of de-capacity is reallyKicked off.Especially the large population movement during the Spring Festival is a test for all enterprises, especially in the southern region. Prevention and control should be strengthened. From this point of view, the nationwide live pigs and capable breeding stocks still face certain uncertainties. Profit forecast and estimation: We expect the company’s net profit attributable to mothers to be 2 in 2019-2021.06/4.63/5.4.6 billion, corresponding to 0 EPS.46/1.03/1.22, give 10-12 times PE in 2020 to get a target price of 10.3-12.36 yuan. The earlier current price has 16% -39% growth space. Considering the uncertainty brought by the African swine fever epidemic, we give a “prudent recommendation-A” rating. Risk reminders: fluctuations in hog prices, sudden large-scale uncontrollable epidemic diseases, major food safety incidents, macroeconomic systemic risks, extreme climates leading to large-scale reductions in crop production and food prices, listed companies infected with African swine fever, and the volume of slaughter is not up to dateIt is expected that the state budget for pig prices and partners’ investment projects will not advance as expected.
SPD Bank (600,000) Quarterly Report Review： Fundamental Welcomes Reversal, Speed Up to Become Top Student
SPD Bank (600,000) Quarterly Report Review: Fundamental Welcomes Reversal, Speed Up to Become Top Student
Event: On April 25, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank disclosed its quarterly report for 19 years.
Revenue 500.
8 billion, a year-on-year increase of +27.
0%; profit before provision 374.
1 billion, a year-on-year increase of +27.
7%; net profit attributable to mother 164.
6 billion, a year-on-year increase of +15.
1%; ROE is 13.
88% (annualized); NPL ratio 1.
88%, provision coverage ratio 160.
1%.
Opinion: Revenue growth has picked up rapidly, and the middle income has regained its strength. The revenue caliber has been fine-tuned since 19 years.
In 19Q1, the “other business costs” of the bid-ask spreads were adjusted to “investment gains and losses”, and the former had not been included in the revenue, so the local revenue decreased slightly, and the quarterly report has restatement for 1Q18.
Revenue and PPOP growth picked up significantly.
Under comparable calibers, revenue in 19Q1 was +27 year-on-year.
0%, basically the same as in 1Q16; 1Q19 PPOP increased by 27.
5%, a new high since 1Q16.
Due to 1Q18 revenue and PPOP exceeding the growth rate is limited to -8.
2% and -11.
2%, so this significant rebound is partly due to the low base effect.
Net interest income improved significantly.
The remote index income is included in other non-interest income. If the two are combined, the growth of net index income under the old caliber can be approximated: 1Q19 is close to 32.
1% (18 years is 7).
.
7%).
The midfielder regained its strength.
In 18 years, the trusteeship income (including financial management) decreased by 8.2 billion a year, and the bank card handling fee increased by 5.7 billion. Therefore, the local middle income YoY-14
4%; With the recovery of wealth management, 1Q19 net handling fee was 120 billion yuan, +13 year-on-year.
2%, an increase of 14 billion per year.
The growth rate of deposits has steadily picked up, and the loan-to-deposit ratio has dropped significantly.
Its growth rate was 1 from 16-17.
6%, 1.
2%, gradually rising to 6 in 18 years.
2%, the growth rate reached 11 in the first half of 19Q1.
4%.
Entering 18 years, the growth rate of the current period is weak, and more continuous periodic extensions have been put on hold.
As a result, one is the gap in the interest rate of deposits.
1 from 17 years.
60% rose to 1 in 18 years.
90%.
The growth rate of time deposits in the first quarter of 19 continued to rise to 36.
5%, higher than 33 in the whole year of 18 years.
2%, the pressure on subsequent debt costs still exists.
However, the growth rate of the current period in 19Q1 also bottomed out, rising from -2 in 18Q3.
4% rebounded to 5 in 19Q1.
.
6%.
The follow-up deposit growth structure is expected to be more balanced.
In addition, the short-term SPD loan increase mainly relies on personal loans, and its personal loan yield is significantly higher than that of the counterparty, which is good for its wide spread.
Second, the loan-to-deposit ratio has dropped significantly.
19Q1 loan-to-deposit ratio of 102.
3%, down 7 from the end of 18 years.
7 pct, the growth of deposits has improved loan expansion 杭州桑拿论坛 and reduced liquidity risk.
With the support of deposits, loan growth remained stable, and investment growth picked up significantly.
The non-performing ratio decreased and provisions increased. The application for 50 billion convertible bonds has withdrawn the non-performing ratio1.
88%, a decrease of 4BP compared with the end of 18, and provision coverage ratio of 160.
1%, an increase of 5 from the end of 18 years.
2 pct.
At the end of 18, SPD’s non-performing ratio was still higher than 24BP of the other 7 stock banks, and lower than the average of the other 6 33.
7 pct.
This time, its difference with comparable peers is expected to narrow.
50 billion convertible bonds are on the way.
In April of 19, the CSRC has accepted the application materials of 50 billion convertible bonds, and the issuance may be 无锡夜网 completed within this year.
If it is issued and fully converted, based on the RWA at the end of 19Q1, it will increase the other Tier 1 capital by 1.
11 pct, space for capital constraints from 2.
26 pct expanded to 2.
58 pct, business expansion for 2-3 years is enough.
Investment advice: Fundamental changes in fundamentals, a significant decline in the loan-to-deposit ratio, a significant increase in net interest income, and a resurgence of middle income; a significant rise in deposit growth, and a significant decline in the loan-to-deposit ratio; convertible bond applications have been replaced.
It is expected that the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers will be 9 in 19-21.
7% / 10.
1% / 11.
8%, corresponding to EPS of 2.
09/2.
30/2.
57 yuan, due to the sharp change in its fundamentals, the loan-to-deposit ratio has been significantly optimized, raising the target estimate to 1x 19-year PB, and the target price of 16.
94 yuan, upgrade to buy rating.
Risk Warning: Excessive reliance on regular precipitation expansion or pressure on interest margins; uncertainty in the macro environment strengthened
Enjie (002812)： The world’s first profitable company with strong profitability and capacity expansion accelerates into global supply
Enjie (002812): The world’s first profitable company with strong profitability and capacity expansion accelerates into global supply
Results review The 18-year results were in line with expectations. Enjie’s 2018 revenue was 24.
6 trillion also increased by 101% (earlier adjustments increased by 16%).
Net profit 5.
1.8 billion also increased by 232% (earlier adjusted value also increased by 40.
8%).
Among them, Shanghai Enjie’s revenue was 13.
300 million with an increase of 48.
6%, net profit 6.
400 million increased by 61.
5%, net profit attributable to mother 4.
76 ppm, affected by the accounting rules for business combination of the same controlling company from January to July.
Net operating cash flow1.
7.1 billion yuan.
Performance is in line with expectations.
Development Trends The three core competitive advantages of the expansion industry are: continuous scale expansion capability, cost control, and global customer introduction.
The scale and cost control are mutually driving, and the international customer certification period is nearly 2 years.
The commanding heights of all dimensions at the company level, leading at the industry level.
Strong capital control and stable profit margin, sharing the world’s top growth rate.
We estimate that the company’s wet-dispersed comprehensive gross profit margin in the past 18 years can reach 60%, which further highlights its advantages over the industry segmentation and demonstrates its cost control.
Initial budget volume 4.
With 6.8 billion pings, China holds 45% and the global share reaches 14%, both ranking first.
The company cut into LG Chem / Panasonic / Samsung supply, and the company expects domestic customers to replace 7 in 19 years.
5-7.
700 million flat, foreign customers put in 2.
3-2.
500 million flats.
We expect the company’s global earnings to increase further.
Speed up the construction of production capacity and consolidate the advantages of scale.
Lithium-ion carbide is a typical heavy asset industry, and the cost of raw materials accounts for a relatively small amount.
The core elements of cost reduction are maximizing production capacity and yield.
The core of stable supply lies in scale and technology.
In 18 淡水桑拿网 years, structural oversupply competition has intensified. By the time the price has fallen by nearly 40%, backward production capacity has been cleared, which is mainly replaced by part of the expansion of scale, and the expansion of production has slowed.
The existing production capacity is 1.3 billion square meters. In 2019, the third line of Wuxi, Jiangxi and Zhuhai will expand. There are 20 lines under construction totaling 1.5 billion square meters. The company expects to reach 2.8 billion square meters in 2020.
Earnings forecast is maintained at 19 / 20e net profit8.
38/11.
6.1 billion forecasts.
Estimates and recommendations currently correspond to 19 / 20e 31 / 22x P / E and maintain a target price of 71 yuan, corresponding to 19 / 20e40 / 29x P / E, with 31.
1% upside. Maintain recommendation. Risks The production and sales of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations, the market share of Enjie shares fell short of expectations, and prices fell more than expected.
Mercury Home Textiles (603365)： Continued growth momentum offline in the second quarter, online recovery and high growth!
Mercury Home Textiles (603365): Continued growth momentum offline in the second quarter, online recovery and high growth!
Investment points: The company’s performance resumes rapid growth, and the net profit attributable to the mother in the first half of the year increases by 12 annually.
5%, in line with expectations.
1) 19H1 realized income of 12.
8 ‰, an increase of 9 in ten years.
9%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 1.
3 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.
5%, deducting non-net profit 1.
100 million, a slight decline of 2 every year.
2%.
Mainly due to the receipt of government grants of 24.73 million yuan in the first half of the year, an annual increase of 105%.
2) 19Q2 achieved income 6.
70,000 yuan, an increase of 19 in ten years.
6%, net profit attributable to mother was 59.03 million yuan, an annual increase of 25.
2%, deducting non-net profit of 48.35 million yuan, an annual increase of 30.
1%, the recovery in the second quarter is obvious.
3) Announcing the profit distribution plan for the first half of 19 years, with a dividend of 2 yuan for every 10 shares.
Gross profit margin continued to increase, selling expenses increased, net profit margin increased slightly, and asset quality continued to improve.
1) The gross profit margin increased significantly.
19H1 gross profit margin increased by 1 compared with the same period last year.
7 points to 37.
6%, rising quarter by quarter starting from 18Q3.
19H1 sales expense ratio increased by 2 over the same period last year.
9 points to 20.
2%, mainly due to the company’s change of spokesperson and increased advertising efforts; the management expense ratio (including research and development expenses) is 7.
.
2%, basically unchanged from the same period last year.
Net profit margin increased by 0 compared with the same period last year.
4 points to 10.
6%.
2) The quality of assets is constantly improving, and the overall sustainability is healthy.
19H1 inventory increased by 1 earlier.
100 million to 南宁桑拿 8.
6 million, accounts receivable decreased by 3502 million to 1.
400000000.
Operating cash flow -1.
2 trillion, an increase of 8281 trillion compared with the same period last year.
Offline channels continued to expand, and store efficiency improved steadily.
1) Channels sink actively, with low-line stores accounting for 70%.
The company’s offline stores reached 2,700 mergers (2600 consecutive franchise stores + 100 consecutive direct-operated stores), of which approximately 70% of the county-level city stores are estimated.
2) Actively promote big store policies and continuously strengthen brand influence.
The company actively promotes the expansion and expansion of large stores over 140 square meters and assembly stores over 200 square meters. It is estimated that the proportion of large stores is about 15%.
3) Offline revenue maintained a good growth trend.
It is expected that the company’s same store in Q2 will continue Q1’s growth trend, driving the second-quarter offline revenue to maintain a better growth rate.
The e-commerce business recovered strongly after adjustment, and performed well in the second quarter.
1) After undergoing a brief adjustment in 19Q1, the e-commerce business quickly recovered to a higher level of growth in the second quarter.
In the “618” event in 19 years, the company has achieved the top sales in the brand industry on the Tmall platform for five consecutive years.
2) The internal organizational structure of e-commerce has been further adjusted to achieve front-end group system and marketization in China and Taiwan. Therefore, product development is more targeted and market share is further improved.
The company is a leading company in the home textile industry. The channels have expanded steadily, and the recovery of e-commerce has been good, driving continuous growth in performance and maintaining the “overweight” level.
The company’s offline and large-scale stores and collection stores continue to strengthen its brand influence and steadily improve store efficiency. The e-commerce business has experienced a gradual recovery and is expected to gradually increase its value to double.
Maintain the sustainable profit forecast. The net profit attributable to mothers in 19-21 is expected to be 3.
.
3/3.
9/4.
6 trillion, corresponding to EPS 1.
25/1.
46/1.
71 yuan, PE is 15/13/11 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.
Changdian Technology (600584) Company Comments： Improved Integrated Structure Reverses Loss Expectations Unanimously Recommended
Changdian Technology (600584) Company Comments: Improved Integrated Structure Reverses Loss Expectations Unanimously Recommended
Event: The board of directors of the company agreed with Mr. Li Chunxing’s written resignation of the company’s CEO, and according to the appointment of the company’s chairman Mr. Zhou Zixue, they unanimously agreed to hire Mr. Zheng Li as the company’s new CEO. Opinion: The new CEO of the company, Zheng Li, has 26 years of experience in the semiconductor industry and has extensive experience in the industry. He has worked in international semiconductor giants such as Renesas Electronics, NXP and is responsible for the Greater China business. He is more familiar with the Chinese market. We believe that this coach changeHelps improve the company’s leadership structure.At the same time, we continue to be optimistic that the company will usher in a turnaround in the second half of the year after the bottom of the 2019H1 performance. The same four major logics remain unchanged: 1.Global foundry leaders usher in more than expected growth in performance, optimistic about the closure of the supply chain and usher in an inflection point; 2.Additional fixed assets investment by the company 6.RMB 70,000 for the expansion of production to demonstrate the company’s confidence; 3.3. The third wave of semiconductor transfer is coming, optimistic about the possibility of domestic substitution; 4.The company is actively deploying advanced packaging, ushered in development potential driven by 5G commercialization in the future and the continued development of AIoT. Being appointed in distress, the appointment is expected to improve the structure: Zheng Li is more familiar with the Chinese market and better explores the Chinese market, grasping domestic alternatives; Zheng Li has held senior positions in international semiconductor giants, has 26 years of industry experience, and successfully led NXP during his work at NXPGreater China has turned losses into profits and has a wealth of practical experience. At this critical moment, the decision to replace the CEO shows the company’s decision to turn losses. At the same time, Zheng Li’s rich industry resources help the company and existing IDM customers to play more.Synergies and the introduction of new IDM customers will help the company’s performance grow. The foundry leader welcomes growth, and the second half of the year will usher in a turning point probability.Global foundry leader TSMC ushered in performance growth in June and July this year, with multiple increases of 21 each.9% and 14%, TSMC returned to growth after 6 consecutive months of performance.With the recent release of new phones from Apple and Huawei, driven by the integration of new machines and global 5G chips, 7-nanometer orders will usher in strong demand, and related benefits will begin in August. TSMC’s August revenue is expected to return to 100 billionThe New Taiwan dollar mark climbed to its highest point in nearly ten months.We judge that the packaging and testing industry in the supply chain will also face the turning point in the second half of the year. Additional investment to 都市夜网 expand production capacity to meet 5G development potential.In order to meet the market demand of key domestic customers, the company plans to continue to expand its production capacity and increase investment in fixed assets6.700 million yuan, the product is mainly divided into power management, radio frequency, wireless, base station, network, multimedia and so on.We judge that the company’s investment will be mainly used to match the key domestic customers’ needs for the upcoming 5G deployment in advance.Due to the shortened cycle of fixed asset investment, packaging and testing companies generally do not easily increase significant fixed asset investment. Unless they hold a large number of orders and are optimistic about future development, we believe that this investment demonstrates the company’s confidence in future development 佛山桑拿网 and is expected to usher in 5Gpotential. Actively deploy advanced packaging to comply with industry development trends.The company lays out advanced packaging such as flip-chip packaging, fan-in and fan-out packaging, and SiP packaging.Advanced packaging will be more and more widely used in the future, especially in 5G applications.We are optimistic about the company’s future growth potential. Profit forecast and investment advice: It is expected that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.13, 0.45.0.68 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: Xingke Jinpeng’s integration is less than expected; the future advancement of 5G technology is less than expected; the depression of the entire semiconductor industry leads to a decline in demand; the company’s fundraising projects are put into production less than expected.
Huazheng New Material (603186) Semi-annual Report Review： Interim Report Performance Exceeds Expectations High-end Materials Continue to Optimize and Improve
Huazheng New Material (603186) Semi-annual Report Review: Interim Report Performance Exceeds Expectations High-end Materials Continue to Optimize and Improve
The company’s revenue in the first half of 20199.
3 billion, an annual increase of 20.
5%, net profit attributable to mother is 45.98 million yuan, an annual increase of 47.
2%, performance exceeded market expectations.
Q2 single-quarter net profit was 31.02 million yuan, an annual increase of about 56.
5%.
In the first half of the year, the company deducted non-attributed 上海夜网论坛 net profit of 37.52 million yuan, an increase of 44 per year.
4%.
We believe that the production capacity of the first phase of the conversion Qingshan Lake will continue to increase, while the proportion of high-end product sales will increase. In the future, it will benefit from the growth in demand for high-speed copper laminates from 5G.
The net profit attributable to mothers will be 1 in 2021.
28/1.
81/2.
32 trillion, EPS is 0.
99/1.
40/1.
79 yuan.
We give the company a PE forecast of 35 times in 2020, with a target price of 49 yuan, and maintain a “buy” rating.
The maximum production capacity of Qingshan Lake Phase I continued to increase, the proportion of high-end materials increased, and the profit level further improved.
The company’s first phase of Qingshan Lake further improved its capacity utilization rate and plant operation efficiency, and its copper-clad laminate capacity further increased.
The customer structure and product structure of the basic copper clad laminate product line continued to be optimized, and at the same time benefited from the continued demand for servers. At the same time, the company’s high-speed copper clad laminate products have achieved mass production and increased sales, further improving profitability.
The company’s gross profit margin was 19.
28%, of which Q2 single quarter gross margin of 20.
66%, an increase of 3 units from Q1, the gross profit margin reached a high of nearly two years, while operating cash flow increased significantly.
At present, the company’s non-public application for the second phase of Qingshan Lake’s expansion has been replaced. It is expected that the second phase will achieve an annual output of 6.5 million tons of high-speed board capacity. The expansion will further meet the demand for high-speed materials during the peak period of 5G construction.
In the first year of 5G commercialization, the growth of high-speed board usage in the medium term was accelerated.
5G business drives the hardware upgrade of base stations, data communications, storage and other equipment, bringing new technical requirements and demand flexibility for high-frequency and high-speed materials.
Due to the transmission bandwidth of 5G, the delay is required to exceed 4G. At the same time, the large-scale MIMO multi-antenna technology requires higher integration of 5G base stations. The radio frequency of the base station will increase the use of high-frequency copper clad laminates.The market space for high-frequency and high-speed copper-clad laminates is about 35 billion.
At the same time, driven by the trade war, the localization is making an imminent breakthrough. The company actively expands research and development, and continues to develop and test. 5G high-speed boards have made good progress in the test and certification of some key customers. After the formal delivery, it will bring rapid progress.Performance elasticity.
The acquisition of Zhongli Automobile strengthens the company’s material layout in the field of transportation and logistics and realizes multi-business development.
The company’s thermoplastic honeycomb materials and other composite materials have developed new products for passenger car structural parts, while further developing lightweight cargo compartments to form full-size coverage.
The company effectively integrated Yangzhou Maxstone and acquired Zhongli Automobile at the same time. It has the ability to design and manufacture special vehicles and supply overall solutions, strengthening the company’s brand and market scale in the field of logistics and transportation composite materials.
Multi-business development can also effectively smooth the impact of additional factors on copper clad laminates.
Risk reminder: The certification progress of high-speed and high-frequency boards is not up to expectations; 5G progress is not up to expectations; fierce domestic competition, raw material price changes bring prices and gross profit margins up to expectations; the target price given may not be reached.
Founder’s solid income： the follow-up trend of social financing may be flattened, and preparations for financing and stabilization are made
Founder’s solid income: the follow-up trend of social financing may be flattened, and preparations for financing and stabilization are made
Founder’s main points about Tianliang’s financing are as follows: 1. The key to this financing’s exceeding expectations is that narrow credit has accelerated on its own trajectory, and undiscounted bank acceptance bills have simultaneously reversed the downgrade of non-standard financing.
2. Financing needs may be concentrated from limited exports, rather than the overall credit being cleared: 1) the proportion of indirect financing continues to increase; 2) the risk of reduced loans continues to decline, and small and micro loans continue to decelerate; 3) Bond financing of medium- and low-rated entities continued to grow, and the proportion of high-rated debt continued to rise, and exceeded 60% in January.
3. We do n’t have to wait for the data in February. In experience, the direction of financing in January should be accurate and clear in the ten-year old fashion. We must at least be mentally prepared to stabilize the financing.
4. The subsequent trends of M2 and social finance may gradually flatten out: 1) M2 and social finance data in January can increase the respective growth centers, causing their slopes to subsequently rise to around 0; 2) thisThe upward slope of the round of financing may be higher than before, the reason is that the reality of “de-banking” will continue to drag down non-standard financing and direct financing.
5. We do not have to be entangled in the financing structure issue. In addition to the long-term and short-term financing of the company, it is also related to the risk appetite of the bank and the expectations of the company: 1) Historical financing cycles are first started from short-term financing; 2) In recent years, long-term loans of enterprises have been related to investment.
6. The stabilization of financing may increase the slope of economic growth, but whether the economy can stabilize as scheduled still needs to be observed: 1) changes in exports, the situation of decentralized funds and whether M1 can be started are all subsequent uncertainties; 2This observation window exists, and even if the economy can stabilize as scheduled, it is near the middle of this year.
7. The stabilization of financing means that monetary policy has basically completed its historical mission. Monetary policy may maintain its neutrality, but the need for “explicit easing” is declining, and the RRR cut cycle has gradually come to an end.
8. The decline of M1 is essentially a higher-risk downside, which reflects that the current expansion of M2 is not enough to bring M1’s stabilization. The rise of M1 and the stabilization of economic growth depend on the further rise of M2.
9. The change in the bond market from bull to bear has not been so immediate. We must wait until the nominal growth of the economy bottoms out. This point of time passes at the end of the third quarter of this year.
10. One of the biggest subsequent variables in the bond market is: Whether the commercial bank’s credit to non-banks continues to shrink: 1) Once the contraction of non-bank credits continues, even if the market does not reach the critical 武汉夜网论坛 timing of the change, subsequent shocks will occur.If the increase, the income space will become narrower, and the investment will also increase. 2) If there is some trend improvement in non-bank credit, then there is still some room for the return rate to decrease in the short term, and the return rate may come out of a deeper bottom.And the inflection point of the rate of return will also be moved behind the inflection point of nominal economic growth.
11. In the case where the credit risk problem is still not falsified, the current credit risk still needs to be vigilant, and the inflection point of financing again may not mean the inflection point of credit risk.
12. It is recommended to see more and move less. For accounts with long durations and high positions, proper consideration can be given to reducing the duration 失败:重查 and reducing positions.
Pien Tze Huang (600436)： Expect the price increase of Pien Tze Huang to the highly recommended level
Pien Tze Huang (600436): Expect the price increase of Pien Tze Huang to the highly recommended level
The company released its 18-year annual report. The income, net profit attributable to mothers and net profit attributable to non-mothers were 47.
6.6 billion, 11.
42 ppm and 11.
23 trillion, each year +28.
33%, +41.
62% and +44.
97%.
The performance exceeded our expectations, mainly due to the increase in sales of the Pianzai series, the increase in investment income in 18Q4, and the significant improvement in the performance of the cosmetics business.
The profit distribution scheme is derived from some.
6 yuan.
The company’s Pien Tze Huang series has continued to grow rapidly under the channel development strategy of the Experience Pavilion and other brands, and its brand influence has continued to increase; the scarcity of Pian Tsai Chan products has led to the expectation of continued price increases, and the gross profit margin has continued to decrease in the past three years. We expect price increases in 19Q2;At the same time, the company’s business diversification progressed smoothly, the toothpaste business grew rapidly, the performance of the cosmetics business improved significantly, and the ability to resist risks continued to increase. The investment rating was upgraded to “strongly recommended-A”.
In 18Q4, the income of Pianzai series resumed rapid growth.
In the 18Q4 consolidated statement income, the net profit attributable to the parent and the non-net profit deduction 深圳桑拿网 were changed to +21.
77%, +68.
53% and +73.
12%.
The sales of Pianzai series resumed the rapid growth trend, which brought a rapid increase in performance: 18Q4 revenue3.
800,000 yuan, +32 a year.
15%; the parent company’s main business profit is around + 5% per year.
However, the gross profit margin of the Pien Tze Huang series in 18Q4 maintained a long-term downward trend, from 84 in 18Q1.
06% dropped to 82 in 18Q4.
02%.
We expect price increases for the 19Q2 Pien Tze Huang series.
The gross profit margin of the Pianzi 癀 series is 87 from 16 years.
96% fell to 83 in 18 years.
02%, a significant decrease.
The scarcity of this product leads to the expectation of continued price increases, and we judge that in 19Q2, it tried to raise prices to promote upward profitability.
In terms of the 1淡水桑拿网8-year consolidated statement indicators: asset impairment losses of 47.32 million yuan, +33.7 million yuan a year, mainly due to the impairment of goodwill caused by the failure of Pianzai Honghong to meet its profit commitments (but after the company’s impairment is only 6.1 million, the risk isFully controllable); net investment income of 9463 million, +47 million a year, mainly due to the Zhangzhou Xingzheng Pianzilian Equity Investment Partnership in which the parent company participated in the estimated investment confirmation; meanwhile, the company contributed Shanghai QingkeNokanda invested by Pianzai Fund (shareholding of Qingke Pianzai).
26%) have applied for the Science and Technology Innovation Board and obtained approval. If the company goes public successfully, the company may usher in a harvest period of investment income in 2020/2021.
Stock 16.
67 trillion, of which 10 are raw materials.
1.5 billion, book balance of raw materials at the end of 17
.
1.9 billion.
We estimate that the company purchased the overlapped product at a low price of natural musk in 18 years as a strategic reserve, and the subsequent supply is fully guaranteed.
At the same time, the inventory issued by the company is calculated using the nominal average method. We estimate that the increase in the raw material inventory in 18 years should also improve the accounting costs of the raw materials for the subsequent Pien Tze Huang (however, the price of natural bezoar and the like also needs to be considered).
In terms of the financial indicators of the parent company for 18 years: the sales expense ratio was 5.
61%, a decline of 4 per year.
79 single, mainly due to the company’s reduction in expenditures on promotion, business promotion, advertising costs; management expense ratio5.
20%, basically the same for a year; R & D costs 88.86 million yuan, + 50% per year, we estimate that it is mainly due to the clinical expenses of Pien Tze Huang.
At the end of 18, advance receipts amounted to 24.04 million yuan, which was around +20 million quarter-on-quarter, and remained at a low level.
From the perspective of the molecular companies in 18 years: Pianzi Honghong’s income was 21.
10,000 yuan, profit 10.75 million yuan, failed to meet the profit commitments, resulting in 18 years of corporate goodwill impairment of 35.48 million yuan.
After combing the channels in 17 years, cosmetics companies have ushered in a significant increase in performance in 18 years: revenue 2.
$ 7.4 billion, previously + 57%; net profit of 4245 million, + 101% per year.
We estimate that the main reasons are: 1. The heavy volume brought by the vigorous development of e-commerce channels; 2. The transfer of brand influence and the company’s cosmetics gradually launched high-end series with stronger prices and profitability.
Toothpaste subsidiary has 18 years of income1.
22 megabits, previously + 41%, more than 40 million, and a loss of about 26 million each year.
With the increase of revenue and brand, we estimate that the profitability of Pianzai Toothpaste will become stronger and stronger, and it is expected to achieve profitability in 2020.
18 years of business point of view: the pharmaceutical industry income 18.
80 ppm, +28 for ten years.
At 45%, we estimate that it was mainly caused by the heavy volume of Pianzi 癀 series; the gross profit margin was 79.
89%, down by 1 every year.
48 units.
Among them, the income of Pianzai series for 17 years was 17.
69 ppm, +32 a year.
07%; gross profit margin 83.
02%, a decline of 3 per year.
45 units.
Pharmaceutical business income 23.
53 trillion, +23 for ten years.
82%; gross profit margin 9.
74%, a decrease of 0 every year.
23 units.
Total income of daily necessities and cosmetics4.
97 ppm, +54 for ten years.
twenty four%.
Profit forecast: We expect the company’s attributable net profit growth rate to be 33% / 23% / 21% in 2019-2021, corresponding to an EPS of 2.
51/3.
09/3.
74 yuan.
The current market value corresponds to an estimated 47x for 19 years.
Increase the company’s investment grade to “strongly recommended-A”.
1. The company’s Pianzaiyu series can continue to increase its volume through the experience hall and other channels: We estimate that the company will have about 150 Pianzaiyu experience halls at the end of 18th. Since the first one began construction in January 2015, the number has grown rapidly and the region has deepened in 18 yearsDevelopment, Xinjiang, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia provinces have achieved a “zero” breakthrough in the blank market. We estimate that the company will focus on market development in Beijing and other regions in 19 years.
At the same time, we estimate that the company’s distribution channels will use the amount of Pianzaiyu to achieve the purpose of expanding brand influence.
2. The scarcity of Pien Tze Huang series products leads to the expectation of continued price increases.
In the past three years, the company ‘s gross profit margin for the Pianzijing series has continued to increase, and we expect price increases in 19Q2.
3. Cosmetics business is on the rise, and it is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend under the influence of Pien Tze Huang.
18 years of cosmetics revenue growth + 57%, profit + 101%, we estimate that the main reasons are: 1, heavy volume brought by the vigorous development of e-commerce channels; 2, the company’s cosmetics gradually introduced higher prices and higher profitability of high-end series.
In summary, we are optimistic about the company’s diversified development model and look forward to the continuous improvement of product profitability. We have upgraded our investment rating to “strongly recommended-A”.
Risk reminder: Pianzai’s series of price increases are not up to expectations, product sales are not up to expectations, drug quality and production and operation risks.
CITIC Securities： How does the science and technology board approach the technology company？
CITIC 上海夜网论坛 Securities: How does the science and technology board approach the technology company?
Technology | How do technology companies evaluate?
CITIC Securities Research Article Xu Yingbo Chen Junyun The expectation of the science and technology board is gradually approaching. The science and technology board company will cancel the direct pricing and issuance method and will use market-based inquiry methods.
Investors in the secondary market pay attention to the marketization estimation methods of technology companies and hope to gain more experience from mature overseas markets.
We have sorted out the historical changes of the estimated technology companies in the US stock market, and summarized the estimation methodologies of technology companies at different development stages.
▍Technology companies have the characteristics of high growth, capital intensiveness, and uncertainty in technology paths. The estimation methods are different from traditional industries.
From the perspective of the development path of US technology stocks, mature companies with relatively stable business models are applicable to the PE update method.
High-growth companies can be supplemented by the PEG estimation method. Based on industry attributes and performance stability, the ownership PEG is discounted or premium.
The asset-heavy growth companies take into account the EV / EBITDA method, and estimate the profit level before the restoration of depreciation.
For companies with weak profits but excellent cash flow, PS is also a commonly used estimation method, which is suitable for e-commerce and cloud company valuation.
For business transformation companies, there may be variations in the estimated multiples and methods.
The discount assessment method of the primary market that may appear in the early stage of the enterprise has a relatively high estimation uncertainty.
Conventional methods: PE and PEG are the most common estimation methods.
PE based on corporate profits and considering profit growth, the PEG method is a universal estimation method applicable to mature and growing enterprises and is widely used.
The level of enterprise assessment is also affected by the company’s business attributes, which may bring PEG discounts or premiums.
Case: Apple’s absolute profit is relatively stable, and the performance growth rate is -5%?
15%, corresponding to PE changes between 10-15 times.
Tencent’s PE multiples have also changed to match the growth rate of earnings. The company has a premium of categorical attributes for social and game markets, and its PEG is greater than 1.
Due to its strength, the US semiconductor design industry has estimated that the PE level is stable at about 15 times for a long time.
Nvidia’s high growth period, PE estimated multiples as high as nearly 50 times, but because of its business property ownership PEG discount; later due to the decline in performance growth, PE is estimated to fall to around 20 times.
Alternative: EBITDA or cash flow instead of profit, suitable for heavy capital, high-growth technology companies.
For companies with heavy assets and high depreciation, corporate profit growth may lag behind revenue growth. The EV / EBITDA method is appropriately applied to restore the calculation of profitability before depreciation, such as the data center IDC industry.
Equinix has continued to invest in large-scale new construction and acquisition of data centers for many years. The company’s PE valuation is as high as 90 times. Investors generally use the EV / EBITDA method to convert to estimated values. The estimated multiples are close to revenue growth.
For areas with high capital expenditures, such as cloud computing, e-commerce, etc., corporate profits may not be released for many years, but revenue growth, cash flow and other indicators have improved significantly. EV / FCF and its derived PS method are usually usedMake a valuation.
Such as Salesforce’s estimate remains at the order of 10 times PS.
Transformed enterprises: Enterprise business transformation may lead to significant changes in estimated multiples and even estimation methods.
Microsoft is the king of the PC era and has missed mobile connectivity. In 2014, the company introduced a cloud computing priority strategy and achieved a substantial breakthrough by the first half of 2015.
Microsoft’s PE assessment level has rapidly increased from about 10 times to 20-30 times.
Adobe’s advanced Photoshop software started, and then experienced a complete transition from traditional software business to SaaS, and its estimation method also switched from PE to PS method.
Currently, Adobe has completed the SaaS business conversion, and the estimated PS level is 10-15 times.
Early-stage companies: The long-term market space discount method is similar to the primary market estimation logic, but it cannot redefine uncertainty and volatility.
For the early companies on the big track, it is difficult to use traditional estimation methods for revenue, profit, and cash flow.
The primary market investment logic called angel or VC, focusing on the size of the track and future market space, may be embedded.
There are very few such success stories in the secondary market.
Taking Tesla as an example, its total vehicle sales in 2013-2014 were only 2.
20,000 vehicles, 3.
20,000 vehicles, corresponding to revenue of 2 billion to 3 billion U.S. dollars, but the current market value increased significantly from 3 billion U.S. dollars to the order of 30 billion U.S. dollars, reflecting the capital market’s expectations for the company’s annual sales of more than 300,000 units.
In 2018, Tesla sold 240,000 vehicles worldwide. It is estimated that in 2019, it will sell close to 380,000 vehicles with revenue of nearly US $ 29 billion. The company’s current market value is approximately US $ 48 billion.
▍Risk factors: The technological path of the technology industry is uncertain, and the risk of intergenerational jumps in technology and business models may occur; the risk of changes in the income and profit of technology companies; the risks of huge uncertainties among early-stage companies; and the risks of transition companies facing transformation failureWait.
▍ Investment advice: We believe that technology is the core driving force of economic progress.
In the US stock market, the market value of technology stocks has rapidly increased from less than 20% a decade ago to more than 28%.
It is expected that the number of A-share technology stocks and the proportion of market capitalization will continue to increase.
Science and technology board dating more outstanding companies, need to consider the company’s size, profit growth, industry attributes, track size, competition pattern and other multi-variable pricing.
For A-share listed companies, if their comparable companies log on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, they may cause the relevant companies to re-evaluate.
Dongjiang Environmental Protection (002672)： Promote the proportion of harmless treatment, increase the income structure, improve the expense ratio, and increase profit loss due to credit impairment
Dongjiang Environmental Protection (002672): Promote the proportion of harmless treatment, increase the income structure, improve 杭州夜生活网 the expense ratio, and increase profit loss due to credit impairment
Event: Dongjiang Environmental released the third quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved operating income of 25 from January to September 2019.
77 ppm, a ten-year increase4.
21%, net profit attributable to mother 3.
32 ppm, a reduction of 10 per year.
88%, net profit after deduction is 3.
00 ppm, a reduction of 16 per year.
27%.
July-September quarter company operating income 8.
88 ppm, a ten-year increase of 9.
42%, net profit attributable to mother 0.
800 million, a decrease of 25 per year.
35%, net profit after deduction is 0.
64 trillion, a reduction of 37 a year.
41%.
The core point of view is that the proportion of harmless treatment has increased, and the income structure has improved: the company’s operating 深圳夜生活 income has steadily increased in the first three quarters, mainly due to the continuous advancement of project construction, of which Nantong Dongjiang 2 burns the project every year / year and Xingye Dongjiang 7.
15 annual comprehensive utilization and treatment projects and Shaoguan Dongjiang.
95 three projects including comprehensive utilization and treatment each year have been put into production.
According to the data disclosed by the company’s semi-annual report, the revenue from hazardous waste innocuous treatment business with high gross profit margin increased in the first half of the year.
54%, accounting for 47% of total income.
16% (last year was 36.
45%), it is expected that the income structure of the budget will continue to improve.
Increase in period expense ratio and increase in profit due to credit impairment losses: The company’s gross profit margin increased steadily in the first three quarters of the year, an increase of 1.
.
87 averages, reaching 36.
54%; period expenses cost 20.
15%, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.
The 69 totals were mainly due to selling expenses and financial expenses of 90.14 million and 10.634 million, respectively, which increased by 30 each year.
04% and 32.
49%.
Prior to this, due to a company’s budget transfer and atomic company’s current transactions in the third quarter, approximately 73.81 million yuan (the first three quarters totaled 82.16 million yuan) of credit impairment losses were accrued, which affected the company’s first three quarters of operationsPerformance, net sales margin was 14.
91%, a decrease of 2.
.
59 uniforms.
Financial forecast and investment proposal lowered the profit forecast. We predict that the company’s net profit attributable to the mother will be 3 in 2019-2020.
9/5.
0 million (previously 7).
2/8.
800 billion U.S. dollars, comparable company’s PE is 19x in 2019. Considering that Dongjiang Environmental Protection is above the leading position in the hazardous waste industry and has a higher capacity compound conversion rate, we give a 20% premium.
Based on the 23x PE, the target price is reduced to 10.
26 yuan, adjusted to increase the level.
Risks remind that future projects are not up to expectations; maximum production capacity is not up to expectations; prices for harmless treatment are down; prices of resource-based products continue to be sluggish